A Tale of Two Economies: The Divergent Perspectives on Our Economic Health
How can some people say our economy is doing great while others say that it’s a disaster? How can something so simple be so paradoxical? Of course, we’re all entitled to our own opinions, but no one is entitled to their own facts. The jobless rate has now been at or below 4% for over 2 years, a streak unseen in the U.S. since the 1960s. Those who own real estate and investments in the stock market are celebrating capacious gains in their net worth. The S&P 500 kicked off the second half of 2024 with its best weekly performance since late April on Friday. Ok Boomer. Not so fast my friend. Unfortunately, for those on the outside looking in, access to this goose that has been laying the golden eggs seems further and further away. Inflation eats away at their paychecks and that oasis of wealth building seems more like a mirage. The solution to this mystery is that it’s all about perspective. The lobsters in the fish tank on board the Titanic did not complain when the great ship hit the iceberg. The reality is that nobody wins unless everybody wins.
The stock market will be abuzz this week with the eagerly anticipated June consumer price index report and the start of the earnings season. Today is Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to Congress. On Thursday we will get the CPI report. The CPI print is forecast to show a 0.1% M/M rise in inflation, while the annual core inflation rate is expected to be unchanged at 3.4%. September isn’t just a song from Earth Wind & Fire….it’s likely that’s when we’ll see the Fed cut interest rates – finally.
We hope our friends in Southeast Texas stayed safe and dry throughout the wrath of hurricane Beryl. Unfazed, oil prices continued their relentless upward ascent. The WTI benchmark gained about 2% last week, it’s fourth straight weekly gain. WTI’s streak of weekly gains is the longest since the week ended Aug. 11, 2023, settling Friday at settle $83.16 a barrel. So let’s take a minute, shall we, to sing our praise for crude oil:
Crude Oil
I never thought of oil as being crude
In fact assigning that name seems somewhat rude
Although we need it to live, its price is booed
We send it to a refinery where it is brewed
Uh oh it is olefinic and the color is badly hued
You hydrotreat it so the colors they extrude
The essence of oil, from deep beneath the earth,
A treasure sought after, of immeasurable worth.
Yet misunderstood, its journey is profound,
From crude beginnings to refined, renowned.
Through pipes and tanks, it journeys with pride,
Transformed through processes, purified inside.
Its olefinic hues, like a canvas, unfold,
In the refinery’s embrace, transformed to gold.
We harness its power, its energy unbound,
Fueling our world, wherever it’s found.
In engines it roars, a symphony of might,
In homes it warms, dispelling the night.
But beyond its utility, its economics told,
Lies a tale of nations, of power, and of bold.
Yet in its shadow, controversies brew,
Between progress and preservation, the eternal stew.
So remember, as we gaze upon its gleaming tide,
Oil’s journey from crude to refined, worldwide.
Its colors and hues, its economic sway,
From the earth’s embrace to our lives each day.
In this dance of necessity and sustainability,
Oil’s story evolves, shaping our reality.
